A closer look at the air.
Explore how next-day predictions compared with measured PM2.5 in Broward County during 2025.
Historical experiment · Not a live forecastMeasured and predicted PM2.5
━ Observed━ Model┄ Persistence
Concentration in µg/m³. Gaps indicate dates without an eligible comparison.
Daily values
| Date | Observed | Model | Persistence |
|---|
What this comparison means
The model uses pollution history and weather through the preceding day. Persistence predicts that tomorrow will equal today. Both are evaluated on the same dates.
The gradient boosting model was selected using 2024 results and trained through December 2024. Its 2025 average absolute error was 1.433 µg/m³ across five established stations, compared with 1.466 for persistence. It still tends to miss pollution peaks.
Weather is delayed ERA5 reanalysis, and pollutant history includes corrections. These historical results do not measure forecasts issued in real time. Pompano opened in September 2025 and is a separate, previously unseen station.